Editorial

Eurovision 2019: ESCplus prediction tool update #4

This past weekend we got to experience 28 acts live on the same stage at Eurovision In Concert in Amsterdam. This provides a preview to some Tel Aviv performances as well as gives us a sense to who plays well to the arena crowd.

The exclusive tool that gathers results from different sources, such as betting odds, views, users reactions and potential comments to simulate the results of the contest.  The methodology behind the tool relies on various principles of mathematical modelling and historical data.

You can access the tool by clicking on the banner below:

Let’s take a look at guidance is giving us in week 4:

MOST LIKELY WINNER:

Netherlands – Duncan Laurence – This was the bookies favorite early on, a revealing music video and a haunting refrain have most likely put this at the top.  Duncan had a great weekend in his home country hosting Eurovision in Concert. He won new fans, proved he could deliver the personal song in an arena environment and was swarmed by the press. He is still the favorite to win Eurovision 2019.

Image result for duncan laurence netherlands

Eurovisiontv

Elsewhere in the top 10, Sweden moves from 6th to 4th as Russia drops from 4th to 5th and Cyprus from 5th to 6th.

Malta jumps into the top 10 at 7th place. Greece falls out of the top 10.

Pos. Country Artist Song Chances of Winning
1
The Netherlands Duncan Laurence Arcade 18.88%
2
Switzerland Luca Hänni She Got Me 9.65%
3
Italy Mahmood Soldi 9.56%
4
Sweden John Lundvik Too Late For Love 6.74%
5
Russia Sergey Lazarev Scream 6.73%
6
Cyprus Tamta Replay 5.48%
7
Malta Michela Chameleon 4.79%
8
Iceland Hatari Hatrið mun sigra 4.13%
9
Norway KEiiNO Spirit in the Sky 4.07%
10
Portugal Conan Osiris Telemóveis 3.70%

 

Michaela Pace was noticeably absent from Eurovision in Concert – perhaps building to the suspense that her staging and voice will take in Tel Aviv. It’s been far too long since Malta has made it to the grand final at Eurovision. I know that many people will be rooting for them.

With the pre-parties in Riga and London coming in this weekend – we will keep an eye on how things may adjust the prediction tool. Should we change the tool to predict Amsterdam 2020 versus Rotterdam 2020? or do you think this is still an open race even though it’s Duncan’s to lose?

 

You can access the tool by clicking on the banner below:

The Eurovision Song Contest 2019 will take place on 14th, 16th and 18th May in Tel Aviv, Israel.

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