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Facts and Figures: Most successful country?

  1. adamacs RUTH DAVIDSON FOR PM.

    oooo first post in this section ;D


    A while ago, 4 years actually, I started to think about how you could determine the most successful participant in Eurovision.


    The problem with this is that it is difficult to say what it requires to be successful. In terms of victories, Ireland, Sweden and Norway have been the most successful over the past 20 years; however all three have had their fair share of disappointment too.


    I considered a number of elements that would reflect the success of a country: final position, average points received and % of total available points received. Each of these will give different reflections of how well a country has performed.


    % of points available
    This is fairly straight-forward. The total number of points received over the past 20 years, is divided by the number of points that were available.


    Average points


    Again, this is relatively straight forward. Divide the total points by the number of participations. However, there are a number of issues with this method:
    1. Some countries have participated in every contest receiving both high points and low points, even 0 points (hlo UK). Other countries have competed in only a handful of contests and done very well (Caucasus republics for example).
    2. In 1991 there were 22 countries voting, whereas in 2008 43 countries participated. Later contests have seen record scores because of the increased number of participants. To combat this, a weighting factor based on the average number of participants needs to be applied to balance out this variation.
    3. The Semi-finals has added additional complexity. In 2007 Hungary were runners up in the semi with 224 points, but in the final the finished 9th with 128. Turkey, Bulgaria and Belarus all finished ahead of them in the final having been miles behind in the semi.
    Final Position

    To calculate this, points are awarded for finishing 1st (15pts), 2nd (14pts), 3rd (13pts), etc. The choice to start with 15 points was arbitrary, but based on a couple of observations. In the days of relegation a top 15 finish, would have avoided relegation, and from ’04-’07 the top 14 could potentially qualify for the final automatically. This method too has its difficulties:
    1. Again, the number of participations is important. Azerbaijan who have participated 3 times, using this method, would have 32 points, but Estonia, who have only reached the final once since the introduction of semis, have 83. Again a weighting factor needs to be applied.
    2. There is no penalty for bad placings. The UK, with 3 last places and 2 bottom 3 finishes is better placed than Turkey who have not finished below 16th since the early 90s.
    Once I start to analyse the raw data I have, I’ll start posting some facts and figures. Feel free to point out any deficiencies in my methodology, and I apologise for the length of this essay; hopefully you’ve not got bored reading, and if you have: TOUGH!! :P
  2. Dingo "Who's Online" page Fan#1

    Ellaby is probably the best person to discuss methodology with! As for the stats, well you could probably publish them in a journal and I bet escfans would read it!
  3. mm

    That is really something to think about. I've always just assumed Ireland as the most successful country somehow but when you mention it, there are others.

    And yeah, going to agree with Dingo.
  4. I think you should turn this into a PhD thesis, it is quite complex when you really think about it as you've done. Is it even possible to analyse this as the contest has essentially changed beyond recognition since the inaugural event?

    In any case, before even looking at the stats I'd wager that :uk: or :ie: would come out on top :D or something like :gr::az::am::rs: in terms of more recent success.
  5. You could also use this fully comprehensive and detailed analysis (featuring 'points percentage') put together by our very own jw and powered by Juche™.

    http://www.escchat.com/participants.php
  6. I'd say The UK.

    5 x 1st
    15 x 2nd
    3 x 3rd
    5 x 4th
    sokrates1988 likes this.
  7. jw HI. I'M ADAM SCOTT.

    I want to know who would be the most successful participant if 9 and 11 points were also used. :(
  8. adamacs RUTH DAVIDSON FOR PM.

    I know I am a man of many talents, but clairvoyancy is not one of them. I cannot guess how people would have awarded 9 and 11 points :(.

    I am a disappointment
  9. jw HI. I'M ADAM SCOTT.

    You are, yes. :(
  10. adamacs RUTH DAVIDSON FOR PM.

    and now I must take my leave
  11. CTP Jass hater

    What about calculating the % of total possible points gained in any edition. Use the cumulative total of that value over 20 years to rank all participants. The obvious flaw is that not everyone has participated in the past 20 editions - perhaps an average of this value would be better than the total?

    Perhaps total wins though is the best judge - with the possible exception of Iceland in 2009 - the objective is to win the contest.
  12. adamacs RUTH DAVIDSON FOR PM.

    % of total points - 1991-2010

    Here is the first piece of data.

    All points scored in this period have been added together and divided by the maximum possible points that could be scored, including both semi finals and finals.

    Interesting results, and the first points go to sheep I think.
    [IMG]

    Ireland were 12th and UK 20th.

    ****I just realised there was a minor flaw in my Total available points. Serbia & Montenegro voted in '06 despite not participating. Incorporating their points only changes one thing. Greece move into 4th and Armenia drop to 5th****
  13. YAY! :D

    I'd also like to throw in a nomination for Luxembourg in an 'all time' situation.
  14. adamacs RUTH DAVIDSON FOR PM.

    Average points

    Below is the top 10 countries interms of Average points.

    The first shows the pure average with no weighting for the number of participants:
    [IMG]

    The second table shows the results if a weighting is applied for the number of participants (which ranges from 22 in 1991 to 43 in 2008):
    [IMG]

    Not a huge difference. Turkey drop out as they have only received particularly high points in recent competitions with the exception '97, Ireland move into the top 10 and Italy jump from 9th to 3rd.
  15. adamacs RUTH DAVIDSON FOR PM.

    good lord, back in the day when i had lots of free time. I just found this when looking through some old posts :D one day when I have enough time I'll redo it :D
  16. Merjan Just me here, drop me a line or dont whatever, either way i dont care xxxx

    You all need to get out more :P
  17. sokrates1988 Anyone going down the pub on the 12th may

    I Agree With Anette :) overall :uk: 1st :ie:2nd

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