This is the result of teh semi finals draw this afternoon: Semi final 1: 1st half: Greece Macedonia Estonia Holland Moldova Finland Belgium Armenia 2nd half: Serbia Denmark Belarus Romania Russia Albania Georgia Hungary Voting in semi 1: Spain Austria France Semi final 2: 1st half: Norway Ireland Czech Republic Lithuania San Marino Malta Portugal Montenegro 2nd half: Switzerland Azerbaijan Slovenia Latvia Poland Iceland Israel Cyprus Sweden Voting in semi 2: Germany Italy United Kingdom
Looking at these semis, EBU's system does not work. The current pot/draw system is there to prevent predictability. If you then end up with a semi with Greece, Russia, Romania, Estonia, Denmark, Serbia, Hungary, Belarus, Georgia, Holland, Moldova, Finland - there's nothing that can explain that. A lot of those are regular qualifiers, just we are not. But we have made the top 10 twice in a row. Every other country is basically already screwed or they need a massive surprise... There's seven almost sure qualifiers in there and that does not help against predictability.
So we are performing on the first half and out of those countries, including the Big 5, only Switzerland tends to vote for us, my prediction is the same as usual lately, we are doomed.
Meh, you're not doomed. Of the following bunch, six go through: Latvia Poland Slovenia San Marino Czech Republic Switzerland Cyprus Montenegro Portugal Lithuania Israel Ireland That means six stay behind. Switzerland, Montenegro San Marino, Latvia, Israel, Poland, Czech Republic and Portugal all don't have a track record to be happy with. Cyprus, Slovenia, Lithuania and Ireland can really ruin songs as we've seen in the past. Any of those twelve will make it and no one knows who. A half decent song may even make you scrape through.
But besides our bad record even when we send half decent songs we very much depend on friendly countries in voting terms (like Switzerland, France, Spain etc.) the 3 times we qualified we had them on our semi, this time we only have Switzerland
My origin country on semi 1 and current home country on semi 2. Unfortunately I cant vote Greece on semifinals.. I'll vote for Cyprus though.
Yikes, talk about friendly voting with some of these combinations. ( + + ) ( + ) ( + ) ( + ) ( + ) ( + ) While I'm not holding out for a miracle, seems we were lucky with one thing in semi final 2. ( + ) ( + + ) ( + ) ( + ) ( + ) Not looking forward to the neighbourly intentions this year - hopefully the jury works well.
I think we are pretty doomed either, same for Holland. Its true that they made the final twice but with much stronger songs. I also think we shouldnt rely On jury's good Will and honesty. We only have a chance if Holland doesnt act unfaithfull again and if spain, austria and france do what they should do. Only if we have a good song ofc. I think Portugal is in a more difficult position by missing both spain and france. I see greece, armenia and russia as sure qualifiers. Romania most likely too. They ll gather votes from belgium, france, Holland and spain.
Semifinal One is full of logical qualifiers (the likes of Greece, Russia and Romania). Semifinal Two is wide open and pretty anyone will have a chance there. Even San Marino if their song is decent. Belgium will have a good old struggle, they'll need a miracle as at the moment, I don't know which seven countries they could beat. Same however goes for Moldova. Macedonia, with the song already known, already looks doomed...
i think in semi 1 these usually qualifiy Armenia Russia Romania Greece Denmark Serbia Georgia moldova finland/Albania/hungary probably might do..its very tough semi semi 2 its usually Norway Sweden Iceland Azerbaijan which qualifies which leaves it as a very interesting semi
There's more. The Germans will probably give a few points to the Czechs and both countries profit from having Polish/Czech natives all over Europe. The UK and Italy will probably vote for the Czechs there. If their song is decent. Same for Poland.
And you can include Georgia in ( + + ) will get points from and ( + ) could be a pair. There are even more groups, and that's just semi 1