•   days until the Eurovision Song Contest Final in Turin!

Semifinal Running Order


    Semifinal One:

    1. Austria
    2. Estonia
    3. Slovenia
    4. Croatia
    5. Denmark
    6. Russia
    7. Ukraine
    8. Holland
    9. Montenegro
    10. Lithuania
    11. Belarus
    12. Moldova
    13. Ireland
    14. Cyprus
    15. Belgium
    16. Serbia
    Semifinal Two:
    1. Latvia
    2. San Marino
    3. F.Y.R. Macedonia
    4. Azerbaijan
    5. Finland
    6. Malta
    7. Bulgaria
    8. Iceland
    9. Greece
    10. Israel
    11. Armenia
    12. Hungary
    13. Norway
    14. Albania
    15. Georgia
    16. Switzerland
    17. Romania
    Norbert likes this.

    A quick analysis of semifinal one:

    Austria and Estonia are predictable openers here. Two midtempo ballads to kick things off, followed by the uptempo song from Slovenia.
    After that, time for the more classic Croatian entry. #5 to #8 are all favourites (bookmakers' top 6 for all of those). Not sure what EBU wants to achieve with that. It might kill one of them, likely to be Holland then.
    They seem to want Holland in the final. This might have to do with rising criticism over the contest in Holland, with TROS' contract ending this year. Many have said 'if Anouk can't, no one can.'
    Montenegro's chances just got a little bigger when it comes to qualification. No matter how much I hate that 'song', they're after the melancholic ballad, just before a quirky Lithuanian entry - they will stand out no matter what. Lithuania is pretty much doomed now.
    After Andrius Pojavis we'll move on to Belarus, which brings us a classic Latin Eurovision song. They should be rather happy with this one, as they'll stand out.
    Moldova will be #12 and after two uptempo(-ish) songs in English, the ballad in Romanian (or Moldovan, as you wish) will stand out. They should have no problem qualifying.
    Aliona's strong vocal will give Ryan Dolan from Ireland some issues. His luck is that he's between two ballads.
    Cyprus is the doomed one this year. Their ballad is brilliant for me, but it just doesn't bring the excitement as some of the other songs do. If Despina makes it, she'll be damn lucky.
    The semifinal will be closed by Belgium and Serbia. Belgium, with a rather mainstream song. It will surely depend on Roberto's vocal performance to see if this has any chance to make it. Serbia closing the semi is a sure sign for qualification I guess.
    A little fact to add here, which I was told about just now: it has never happened that there were more qualifiers from the first half than from the second half. Even 5-5 is pushing it. That's bad news for probably Croatia.

    Looking at some figures, #14 has the biggest chance of qualifying - not looking at the songs here. #14 has always qualified. A good sign for Cyprus?

    My ten qualifiers would be - predicting:
    Denmark - Ukraine - Russia - Moldova - Serbia - Holland - Austria - Belarus - Cyprus - Ireland

    And an analysis of semifinal two:

    Logically, the producers have decided to kick off with the Latvian song. The title, Here We Go, just asks to be the semi opener. It doesn't help them though and I can't see Latvia getting through.
    San Marino getting #2 is what seems to piss off a lot of fans, whereas in fact there's no reason to be angry if you want them to qualify. Since 2008, ten songs have sung in #2 of the semi, 7 of them qualified (with Aven Romale, Et Cetera and Haba Haba failing). No need to worry!
    On to FYR Macedonia then. It's hard to predict how that song will do. With a good performance, they might make it, but inbetween San Marino and Azerbaijan, I'm afraid Esma and Lozano can't do much.
    Azerbaijan got #4, but I imagine they could've started anywhere and still qualify. They will influence what's around them though, like FYR Macedonia.
    Fifth to perform is Finland, a quirky pop song. Funnily, no song in semifinal two has ever qualified from #5. I imagine Finland changing that. They should make it through, as they'll leave quite an impression, if performed well.
    Malta will follow Finland, which is Gianluca's loss. His song is a little forgettable, and being inbetween Finland and Bulgaria won't help. Bulgaria will surely stand out after Malta's nothingness and will be just in or just out.
    Iceland has reasons to be happy, but also reasons to be very disappointed. Their ballad follows after three uptempo songs, which might help them, but it's behind Bulgaria and just before Greece: also two non-English songs which are a lot more eccentric than the Icelandic ballad. Greece should have no problem qualifying after Iceland. They'll make an impression, that's for sure.
    Israel and Armenia follow. I think one of these will kill the other. At the moment, I'd say Armenia is the victim here. They'll have some issues qualifying.
    A lot of vocal power from Bulgaria to Armenia (#7 to #11) is followed by the 'whisper' from Hungary. He'll surely win the Swedish hearts with his chorus in Swedish, and he could well be the shock qualifier.
    Norway will surely stand out, no doubt there. They could easily win their semi now. Albania follows them, and even though #14 has a 100% qualification record so far, they'll struggle to impress.
    Vocal power coming from Georgia in #15. They're a dead certain qualifier I guess. Switzerland on #16 is good for them, the song is strong enough, but Takasa needs to nail it - not like in the NF or the NFs they've visited.
    Romania will close the semi. A surprise? Not really. TVR has played with the thought of withdrawal in the past. A non-qualification might cause an actual withdrawal and EBU does not want that. And so they help out Romania. Too bad for them, I don't think there's a whole lot that can save them.

    My ten qualifiers - prediction:
    Norway - Azerbaijan - Georgia - Greece - San Marino - Finland - Israel - Switzerland - Hungary - Iceland
  4. Julio STRANGLES

    my own predictions:
    (random order)

    Semi 1: :rs: :ie: :md: :by: :nl: :ua: :ru: :dk: :si: :at: (or :me: instead of :at: not sure)

    Semi 2: :ge: :no: :am: :il: :az: :gr: :fi: :sm: :bg: :al:
  5. sokrates1988 I HATE EUROVISION

    who had the bright idea to finish with Romania ? its not exactly save the best till last for the big finish :S

    Check the last part of my analysis - I guess that's the reason :P
  7. sokrates1988 I HATE EUROVISION

    Estonia Russia ukraine Denmark Lithuania Serbia are almost certainties to qualify the other 4 places could be anyones apart from Belgium.

    FYR Macedonia Norway Azerbaijan Georgia Armenia Greece Hungary Albania Latvia and Finland
  8. Genesis2703 Pointless

    Putting 5th-8th together for semi 1 was a bit silly in my opinion. I also have more faith in Estonia than you do Nick :P

    No matter how nice they are to Belgium/Romania with their slots. I doubt anything will save them :/

    I would normally have faith in Estonia with this song. The facts speak against them though. They're in the first half, where I can easily see 5, 6 songs having a bigger chance to qualify (Denmark, Russia, Holland, Ukraine, Austria and perhaps Croatia). Statistics say that the chance that there are more qualifiers from the first half than from the second half are close to nothing. However, in a smaller semi, like this year, it might be possible for them to qualify. I sure hope so...
    CroMaxim likes this.
  10. Genesis2703 Pointless

    Well according to the editorial it seems as if being 2nd to perform gives you quite a good chance of qualifying, and as you say since the semi's are smaller this year that probability will surely increase?
  11. CroMaxim Bryce

    You gotta love the draw. 1st. we can chill with those low tempo songs and then storm of euphoria as 5th song hit the stage.Until 10th song come and kill the atmosphere of all semis.
  12. NickEmpel BURGER AND FRIES

    That's for sure. That's the fact that speaks in favour of their qualification. However, for me, the contra-arguments outweigh those. It also won't help that they're right after Austria. Same style, but in English...
  13. Genesis2703 Pointless

    I don't seem many similarities between Austria and Estonia though, Austria is far closer to a pop song than Estonia is. I'd argue Estonia is far more like a ballad. I don't think Austria will completely kill Estonia's chances. Then again I better have a quick flick over who gets to vote in semi-1, to see if either of those 2 countries will get an extra support due to neighbours. I doubt it though.
  14. CroMaxim Bryce

    Old-balkan votes will be shared a lot :D :hr: :si: :rs: :me:
    lets hope that all 12 points:)hr: :si: :rs: :me: ) wont finish to just one country of those 4.
  15. Robert New Member

    I think the extra support will go to Estonia.

    I have made a little analysis. I checked the top 10's of each country in semifinal 1 2013 for all the semi's they were in from 2008-2012. I made a top 10 of countries they will probably send their points to. Of course some countries were never drawn in the same semi but some were. Like cyprus giving 12 to greece, there were many other predictable results. After every top 10 I awarded them 12, 10, 8-1 points and added them together. I did not use Austria's points because they have been in the competition only twice in the past years.

    Here is the final top 16:

    1. ukraine 124p.
    2. denmark 102 p.
    3. russia 87p.
    4. ireland 84p.
    5. lithuania 82p.
    6. estonia 73p.
    7. moldova 72p.
    8. serbia 69p.
    9. croatia 57p.
    10. cyprus 56p.
    11. belarus 55p.
    12. slovenia 41p.
    13. belgium 33p.
    14. Holland 30p.
    15. montenegro 20p.
    16. austria 18p.

    It seems that there is a clear top 8 so the final 2 qualifiers could be surprising. But people seem to doubt that lithuania qualifies and also estonia...

    Anybody any thoughts on this?
  16. Genesis2703 Pointless

    Austria won't do that badly for sure, neither will belarus or Holland I am sure. Lithuania is also really overrated. The problem with your method is that you don't actually take into account how good a song was in those years. I mean a country could have sent really good songs from 2008 to 2012 so be high on your ranking, but if they send a horrid song this year they obviously won't place highly :P
  17. Robert New Member

    True it's independant of the quality of the song. But a lot of countries have sent songs that vary in quality. Lithuania for example. And some countries still awarded them with the same amount of points.

    I prefer austria but I wouldn't mind if estonia would qualify instead. I really hope Holland will, but I still doubt it.

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