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The final draw

  1. Mina Member with a "past"

    1. France
    2. Lithuania
    3. Moldova
    4. Finland
    5. Spain
    6. Belgium
    7. Estonia
    8. Belarus
    9. Malta
    10. Russia
    11. Germany
    12. Armenia
    13. Holland
    14. Romania
    15. United Kingdom
    16. Sweden
    17. Hungary
    18. Denmark
    19. Iceland
    20. Azerbaijan
    21. Greece
    22. Ukraine
    23. Italy
    24. Norway
    25. Georgia
    26. Ireland
    Norbert likes this.
  2. sokrates1988 I HATE EUROVISION

    Norway and Georgia nicely placed near the end :faint:
  3. Denbi Member

  4. Julio STRANGLES

    so they right away killed france estonia belarus moldova and finland with early draw
    then we have germany and russia beside each other not good for both of them but i think russia will still manage to score top as they have a bigger support.
    Holland between Armenia and Romania will obv do better on the other hand, italy between ukraine and norway is a death sentence.
    denmark can probably start thinking on hosting, coming right after the boring hungary and before the very calm ballad of iceland.
    azerbaijan will top score again easily with that draw, just like georgia. as for the big 5, spain and france wont go far, germany is a doubt for me, an early draw and after russia doesnt seem very good, italy lost all the chances to host being in the middle of the top 3 favourites ukraine and norway, and uk didnt get a very good draw, after romania might be a good thing but before sweden and that early isnt very good.

    that's how I see it. P.S. no wonder how georgia is second last as his boyfriend is a backing singer isn't it :P

    I have also written an analysis of this running order. It's enormous :P I've split it up in two parts, so here's part I:

    When I saw this running order last night, I was speechless (not unique for this week, but ok)... There are a few things you might be able to see from this draw. It's clear EBU doesn't want to go to certain places, other countries couldn't do a hosting job, so this running order can knock out some of those.
    It also shows that some countries didn't do that well. That's what this post will be about: my analysis of this running order.
    Let's start in the first half. We're opening with France and that's a weird choice. It's not logical to open with a dark song like this. Better opener would have been Germany, but that's a whole other point I'll talk about later.
    #2 then. The feared number 2 slot. The producers put Lithuania there. That certainly indicates that Lithuania was a true no-hoper for the final and most likely, they came 10th in the semifinal.
    One country has been climbing and climbing in people's appreciation and predictions this week and that's Moldova. They were put in 3rd. Not a very unusual spot to put this ballad is what I thought at first. However, thinking about it, it's not ideal for Moldova in any way. They have been predicted to come top 5 by quite a few people and the thought that now popped into my head: why is Moldova being killed by this draw? Cause that's the simple truth: Moldova is not going to trouble the scoreboard now. A friend and I came to a simple conclusion: Moldova came top 3 in their semi and might've won it. One thing was for sure: EBU was not looking forward to the possibility of Eurovision in Chisinau...
    Then there's #4, Finland, who surprised me in every possible way by being put there. Yes, Finland is the closest thing to a gimmick we have this year, so is EBU afraid of them winning? Another sign of a surprising semifinal winner perhaps? Anyway, in this case, the plan failed. Finland is so memorable, they will still do well.
    #5, Spain. I don't have a lot to say there, except the fact that they just had to go somewhere. It's not like Spain is a favourite and their chances to trouble the left side of the scoreboard were already low, now they're a little more... dead?
    Next up is Belgium on #6 and they just won't do much to threaten the countries seen as favourites. They might've been 7th-9th in the semi, nothing too spectacular. The running order won't help them to improve their position though...
    Estonia got #7. It's not like there's much to say about this besides the fact that it's the second true ballad of the night and that will help her to stand out. Any closer to Moldova and both would've had a disadvantage, but this is just fine. She needs to pull off a great vocal though, because of the song that's following her...
    That's Belarus, on #8. It's likely that they are in the same zone as Belgium. I hate to say it, but EBU doesn't want to go to Minsk. Had Belarus done incredibly well in the semi, they would've gotten that #2 slot. Or even #1. It's a song that can get stuck in your head, but with Finland a little over 10 minutes before it, this'll come as a weak song in there.
    Malta is on 9th and honestly, that's the same as Spain. It had to go somewhere. Malta won't have troubled the top 3 of the semi and they needed something uptempo to go before Russia. So they went with the cute cheerful tune from Malta.
    Russia on 10th also made me wonder. It's a really good position for them just looking at that number, but Germany right behind it is dreadful for them. My idea says Russia was about 4th in their semifinal. Not a winner, but it'll do well, top 10 should obviously be in reach.
    My personal prediction for the winner is on #11 and that idea got strengthened by this position. It's uptempo and you will remember Glorious for a long long time, because the next earworm you'll get is Denmark on #18. The ballad from Russia before it and the rock ballad (with weaker vocals if you ask me) from Armenia behind it will make Germany stand out immensely. If there's one country that's going to beat Denmark, it might well be Germany.
    And then there's #12 and I was flabbergasted when this qualified. It's probably the worst song in this final for me, but now back to my objective point of view. It's the only rock ballad in this semi and it makes no sense whatsoever to put it here. Obviously, Armenia didn't do too well in the semifinal and are no danger for the top 3 on Saturday, but why they would put the male rock ballad so close to Anouk is a mystery...
    On #13, the last one of this part of my analysis, we see Holland. It's remarkable that EBU seems to give Anouk an advantage. Look at the semi: she drew first half (1-8) and got slot #8. Now she drew first half (1-13) and got #13. It's no mystery or miracle that EBU wouldn't mind going to Amsterdam next year. Is there a chance that Holland will surprise on Saturday? I'm not too sure, one thing I do know is that she will stand out. A big advantage is also that the break will be after Anouk. She will have more time to work on the viewers and juries than the others (who just follow each other immediately, only split by a postcard), it can keep on going in people's heads.
  6. Mina Member with a "past"

    I don't know where you get your information from but Moldova has never even bothered the top 10 of betting odds (it's actually 18th there right now) and it has nothing to do with the 3rd spot in the final. Finland got #4 and it's 12th and shortening. I don't think there was ever a remote possibility that Moldova could win this contest..or make the top 3..or even the top 5. Being appreciated by fans has nothing to do with how well it did in the semi. I do agree that #3 isn't a very good spot but I don't agree with the rest of your theories.

    Do you really believe that even if Belarus sang 26th, they would have a chance to win with that song? It has nothing to do with Finland before it. It IS a weak song with bad vocals and a bad staging. The only thing that got it through, I imagine, is the latin tune...summer is coming and the melody has this summery feeling. And ofcourse the fact that it was in a semi full of ex soviets.

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